Depreciation Curve Predictor
Predict year-by-year depreciation for any vehicle class. Most cars lose 20–30% of value in year one and 40–55% by year three — but the curve varies massively by brand, segment, and powertrain.
Car Depreciation Calculator
Year-by-year projected residual value and cumulative depreciation.
| Year | Value | Loss | Cumulative |
|---|
How It Works
Depreciation follows a curve, not a straight line. The steepest drop happens in years 1–2 (the new-car premium evaporates). Years 3–5 depreciate more slowly. After year 5, depreciation rate slows to 5–8% per year. Trucks and certain Japanese vehicles hold value better than European luxury and EVs.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter MSRP or current purchase price.
- Pick vehicle class (compact, midsize, SUV, pickup, luxury, EV).
- Pick brand to apply brand-specific multiplier.
- The calculator returns value at year 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10.
Worked Example
Reference Table
Typical value retention by brand and class. Updated 2026 — used-car market shifts in 2021–2023 pushed retention rates 5–10 points higher than historical norms.
| Class / brand | Year 1 retained | Year 5 retained |
|---|---|---|
| Toyota Tacoma | 87% | 60% |
| Toyota 4Runner | 85% | 63% |
| Honda Civic / Toyota Corolla | 82% | 55% |
| Ford F-150 / Chevy Silverado | 78% | 52% |
| Honda Accord / Toyota Camry | 78% | 50% |
| Subaru Outback / Forester | 77% | 53% |
| Mainstream SUV (RAV4, CR-V) | 78% | 52% |
| Tesla Model 3 / Y | 75% | 48% |
| Lexus, Acura (mainstream luxury) | 72% | 45% |
| BMW, Audi, Mercedes | 65% | 38% |
| Range Rover, Maserati | 58% | 28% |
| Non-Tesla EVs (Bolt, Leaf) | 60% | 32% |
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do some cars depreciate slower?
Reliability, brand reputation, and supply constraints. Toyota and Honda dominate the slow-depreciation list because used buyers trust them. Tesla holds value better than other EVs due to brand cachet and the Supercharger network.
Do EVs really depreciate faster than gas cars?
Yes — generally 15–25% faster in the first 3 years, then they plateau. The market is still adjusting to range anxiety, battery replacement fears, and federal incentive churn. Tesla is the exception; mainstream EVs depreciate hard.
Is it true that “buying used” saves depreciation?
Yes, significantly. A 3-year-old car has already absorbed 40–55% of its lifetime depreciation. You’ll pay 50–60% of original MSRP and the next 5 years of ownership only lose another 20–25% of MSRP.
What’s the worst-depreciating vehicle?
Luxury sedans from European brands. BMW 7-series, Audi A8, Mercedes S-class regularly lose 65–75% of value in 5 years. The same brand’s SUVs hold value 10–20% better than their sedans.
When is the best time to sell a car for max value?
Year 2–3, just before the 36-month/36 000-mile warranty expires. Buyers will pay a premium for “still under warranty,” and you’ve avoided the steepest depreciation by riding year 4–6.
